The Boomers Strike Back: How to get rich in (ageing) America

And 2 exclusive stock picks.

The first boomer turns 80 years old in 2026.

At 65 years old it was golf. 80 is assisted living, home health, memory care.

Nobody moves into one of these buildings because they want to. They move in after a fall, after an incident, or when they are sadly losing their marbles. I have been witnessing this with my late grandfather and my now quite old and frail grandmother.

After 80, trouble accelerates.

The aging trade has been the most telegraphed idea in finance for thirty years and it has lost money for most of them.

The buildings went up ahead of the residents and owners spent a decade discounting rent against each other.

We’re now reaching an interesting fork in the road where demand is speeding up and supply is not going to match.

The population aged 80 and over goes from 14.6 million this year to 22.8 million in 2036, a 56% increase. The country’s population will grow 3.6% over the same ten years.

Against that: senior housing inventory grew 0.4% last year, the lowest since NIC started tracking supply in 2006.

There are fewer than 16,000 units under construction nationwide, down from nearly 50,000 in late 2019.

These take about two and a half years to open, so nothing that isn’t already in the works can possibly open before 2029 at the earliest.

Here is the arithmetic:

There are about 711,000 senior housing units in the markets the National Investment Center (NIC) tracks, and 639,650 of them are occupied.

If the share of over-80s who live in one remains constant, if you hold occupancy at 90%, then the industry has to add roughly 39,600 units a year until 2036.

The best year it ever had was 21,440 units, in 2018.

So the requirement is nearly double the all-time record, sustained for a decade, against a current run rate under 3,000 units. We need 13x what is being built.

That gap won’t close. There’s no version of this decade where these buildings aren’t full.

One of the Babylon Burns picks is a senior housing landlord which could seriously re-rate as we witness an interesting self-help story in it ramping up its occupancy towards market averages in coming quarters.

This rerating could drive it up 40-60% in coming years.

If you join today, you’ll get my 2 picks in this theme, and you can enjoy our launch discount which gets you an annual price of $299 instead of $399.

You’ll also unlock yesterday’s note in whcih I unveiled 13 energy picks in what I’m calling : THE BIG LONG.

Now is the absolute best time to join Babylon Burns