This past week, a particular narrative has been pushed on us as Iranian officials were in New York for the UN general assembly.
The media reported that Iran said it could reopen Hormuz within seven days if the US lifts its blockade, releases frozen funds and ends hostilities across the region.
Trump, very soon after the market closed, said Iran is running out of money, and that they are in a strong position, and bombing could resume after the midterms.
I have treated these talks as smoke and mirrors.
Neither government has publicly accepted the concessions needed to restart the June bargain.
US-protected oil traffic has given the US a belief that they do not need to concede any of Iran’s requests.
That makes further maritime escalation before year-end extremely likely in my view, even if the largest American strikes wait until after the November midterms.
The chance of Iran esacalating on its own timeline, should not be ignored now.
Washington’s wager
Trump set out the American strategy in a July 13 Truth Social post:
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Why do I think the Iran peace talks are smoke and mirrors?
How is protected tanker traffic changing the balance between Washington and Tehran?
Why does that make renewed escalation extremely likely?
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