The stock-versus-flow distinction is useful because it moves the discussion beyond annual deficit headlines and toward the marginal holder. I would add one timing constraint: a tighter free float creates asymmetry, not direction. The same narrow door can amplify forced selling when leveraged demand reverses, as January demonstrated. For me, the structural case becomes actionable only when closing prices confirm renewed investor demand and gold or miners stop disagreeing. A touch is a question; a close is an answer. That separates a valid scarcity thesis from the timing of the next leg.
I've been in and out of silver over the past several years: physical silver held locally as well as SLV and SLVO. The yield on SLVO performed explosively for a while given that it's a covered call ETN. It will perform again if silver rips. And, yes, I'm already in on the metals stocks here!
Also…and it doesn’t matter now in 2026…but do you not consider the Trade dollars that were minted from 1873-1878, Morgan dollars that were minted 1878-1904 (and 1921), and the Peace dollars of 1921-1928 and ‘34-‘35 a continuation of US Silver Dollars that were ended in 1873? They all contained the same amount of silver. (My son and I are amateur US coin numismatists/enthusiasts)
My read is that you see the demand for silver coming from retail, specifically India and China. Are you arguing that those prospective buyers see this as the opportunity to benefit from the recent bounce in the price of gold? In other words, they didn't catch the gold bounce, so they will try to copy it with silver?
I am leery of gold and silver. Their prices are driven by emotion, not logic. Gold was my first 'investment', having been raised in India. I watched in horror as it dropped from $800/oz to $200/oz in the 1980s. Silver was at $5 and stayed there throughout the 1980s and 1990s. If I knew then what I know now, I would have bought after the drop, instead of wringing my hands. Long term, SPY and QQQ handily beat gold and silver. Which is not to say that short-term opportunities won't exist, but I am going to pass -- once burned, twice shy!
That’s precisely the point. It’s a trade, not an investment. Understanding the difference is the whole game. The gap between those two ideas is where people make money (or lose them).
The stock-versus-flow distinction is useful because it moves the discussion beyond annual deficit headlines and toward the marginal holder. I would add one timing constraint: a tighter free float creates asymmetry, not direction. The same narrow door can amplify forced selling when leveraged demand reverses, as January demonstrated. For me, the structural case becomes actionable only when closing prices confirm renewed investor demand and gold or miners stop disagreeing. A touch is a question; a close is an answer. That separates a valid scarcity thesis from the timing of the next leg.
I've been in and out of silver over the past several years: physical silver held locally as well as SLV and SLVO. The yield on SLVO performed explosively for a while given that it's a covered call ETN. It will perform again if silver rips. And, yes, I'm already in on the metals stocks here!
Also…and it doesn’t matter now in 2026…but do you not consider the Trade dollars that were minted from 1873-1878, Morgan dollars that were minted 1878-1904 (and 1921), and the Peace dollars of 1921-1928 and ‘34-‘35 a continuation of US Silver Dollars that were ended in 1873? They all contained the same amount of silver. (My son and I are amateur US coin numismatists/enthusiasts)
My read is that you see the demand for silver coming from retail, specifically India and China. Are you arguing that those prospective buyers see this as the opportunity to benefit from the recent bounce in the price of gold? In other words, they didn't catch the gold bounce, so they will try to copy it with silver?
I am leery of gold and silver. Their prices are driven by emotion, not logic. Gold was my first 'investment', having been raised in India. I watched in horror as it dropped from $800/oz to $200/oz in the 1980s. Silver was at $5 and stayed there throughout the 1980s and 1990s. If I knew then what I know now, I would have bought after the drop, instead of wringing my hands. Long term, SPY and QQQ handily beat gold and silver. Which is not to say that short-term opportunities won't exist, but I am going to pass -- once burned, twice shy!
That’s precisely the point. It’s a trade, not an investment. Understanding the difference is the whole game. The gap between those two ideas is where people make money (or lose them).