I like the way you think and want to support you and hopefully breakeven on my $299 pledge! However, I don't smoke cigars and don't like burning down the house! I manage my own family office and shared this essay with my daughter who is an aspiring equity analyst. Very important read! I would like to quote Mike Tyson "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".
Have subscribed but have yet to receive a password to access website with full listing of positions within the portfolio - will this be resolved soon? Thanks
Hi there are some sendability issues that are being resolved to a small portion of our members emails. You have the option to create a password instead to log in, as I mentioned in yesterday's post.
Hey Sam. I remember that initial AVGO trade. We briefly chatted about it. I bought as well....and exited much sooner than you (novice trader at the time). Thanks again for AVGO.
Well thought out read. Thank you. I pledged to subscribe for the year via the app. A message flashed that I did not read. Two questions for you please:
1-When do I pay for the subscription?
2-If I subscribe via the app will I have access to the Substack articles? (are they included with the app.
Sorry you might have explained all this but I’m on a plane with poor connections.
Your previous article on how the US government manipulates oil prices was spectacular. In the coming quarters, I suspect the US government will try to manipulate just about everything. So it should be an interesting ride.
I think some people are mistaking the 200dma rule as a condition to avoid buying stocks when it is a sell signal for existing positions that are not working. Great read otherwise and good luck with the launch and new fund. I will be subscribing,
Hi Mathias. Seeking Alpha’s marketplace wouldn’t give me custom watchlist and portfolio management tools that would be sufficient for this. Seekingalpha’s marketplace is a hosting alternative to Substack. I’m launching on Substack with my own custom tools, because I believe that for this model it will most benefit the members.
Marc Faber has been predicting the very period you describe for the past six months. It will be a time when you don't come out a winner by playing the slot machines, but rather by avoiding significant losses. Some will lose 50–70% of their capital; if you lose only 20%, you are already a winner—even if you are invested in bonds. Buffett is still patiently waiting in bonds.
The 200 day rule would eliminate way too many successful entry points imo. And we don’t even have to look at tech. Think healthcare stocks in the past year, or oil stocks in 2020. Many many examples. The key in this is to discern whether the market is over reacting to whatever happened and whether the company has the financial strength to work past that reaction. Best wishes for your upcoming launch.
The day before the breakout I posted a video saying I'd be long Gold as soon as it breaks out.
I built a position in $CMCL at open.
This is why the subscription will be valuable. With the in app tools I will be able to send out trading alerts in real time, as there is no way I can write up multi thousand word reports at the rate at which real portfolio management requires changing my mind.
I would refer you back to this article's section on buying momentum vs buying value. There is a time for both, and if you're applying a value lens to what should be a momentum trade, you'll end up with the conclusion of your comment.
1. As a longtime shareholder of Caledonia, absolutely back you on that. My position was built in the single digits and I have collected dividends the whole way. I have also traded around the core. That's the way to build multi-baggers -- hold through drawdowns by selling covered calls and wait until the multi-year cycle has run its course. It has not yet. Bilboes will be a beast of a mine and Zimbabwe is misperceived as a jurisdiction -- it's no Mali. 2. Your post about gold miners dropped within a week literally of the bottom in the miners. Look at charts of GDX or AEM if you doubt me. I think your post landed July 10 and they bottomed July 17. Caledonia has that crazy gap down open and long candle to mark a bottom in the same week. 3. There are multiple ways to trade around bull markets in cyclical industries. You and I can both make money doing our separate things. I just think the timing optics of your post reflect something more akin to capitulation than you'll care to admit. 4. With regard to this post about portfolio building, I 100% agree with most of what you wrote. I shared your other post about the manipulation of the oil markets with multiple friends because it is spot on. However, I don't need to subscribe to your service to get ideas that I can surface on my own, like CMCL that I've been following for over a half decade. Best of luck with the touts.
Really like the transparency here. Sharing the framework and decision-making process alongside the actual portfolio is far more valuable than simply posting the winners after the fact.
Hi Sam - does the $299 annual subscription provide me with access to everything that launches on Aug 15? or is that a separate subscription?
Yes the annual will get you everything that launches. No there will not be a separate subscription
lets go Laszlo. as Firesign said.
I like the way you think and want to support you and hopefully breakeven on my $299 pledge! However, I don't smoke cigars and don't like burning down the house! I manage my own family office and shared this essay with my daughter who is an aspiring equity analyst. Very important read! I would like to quote Mike Tyson "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face".
More cigars for me!
I used to have a t-shirt in high school with that exact Mike Tyson quote on it.
I'm happy this could help your daughter.
Thanks for reading and commenting :)
Have subscribed but have yet to receive a password to access website with full listing of positions within the portfolio - will this be resolved soon? Thanks
Hi there are some sendability issues that are being resolved to a small portion of our members emails. You have the option to create a password instead to log in, as I mentioned in yesterday's post.
Let me know if that works.
Sam
Yes, creation of a Password would be great Thanks
It is already a live feature, click on sign in with a password instead
Password issue resolved. Thanks again
Excellent launch this week with the newsletter, though would have given Gold sector (miners) a larger allocation.
Nice display of positions, very transparent
Hey Sam. I remember that initial AVGO trade. We briefly chatted about it. I bought as well....and exited much sooner than you (novice trader at the time). Thanks again for AVGO.
Well thought out read. Thank you. I pledged to subscribe for the year via the app. A message flashed that I did not read. Two questions for you please:
1-When do I pay for the subscription?
2-If I subscribe via the app will I have access to the Substack articles? (are they included with the app.
Sorry you might have explained all this but I’m on a plane with poor connections.
It will be paid on August 15th when we go live.
Yes you will have access to everything
Hi Sam, can you confirm the price please, $388.70, or the $299?
Yes $299.
Your previous article on how the US government manipulates oil prices was spectacular. In the coming quarters, I suspect the US government will try to manipulate just about everything. So it should be an interesting ride.
I think some people are mistaking the 200dma rule as a condition to avoid buying stocks when it is a sell signal for existing positions that are not working. Great read otherwise and good luck with the launch and new fund. I will be subscribing,
How do I sign up for an annual subscription? There is no link.
Hi Sam, love your writing. What’s the reason you build your own web app instead of using something like Seeking Alpha Marketplace?
Hi Mathias. Seeking Alpha’s marketplace wouldn’t give me custom watchlist and portfolio management tools that would be sufficient for this. Seekingalpha’s marketplace is a hosting alternative to Substack. I’m launching on Substack with my own custom tools, because I believe that for this model it will most benefit the members.
Makes sense, thank you for the reply. Will probably subscribe to the annual sub, you have an interesting perspective.
Marc Faber has been predicting the very period you describe for the past six months. It will be a time when you don't come out a winner by playing the slot machines, but rather by avoiding significant losses. Some will lose 50–70% of their capital; if you lose only 20%, you are already a winner—even if you are invested in bonds. Buffett is still patiently waiting in bonds.
must have missed the part that explains why even the author would follow rules this time around because written (and free for him!).
rules are generic, situations nearly always specific?
The 200 day rule would eliminate way too many successful entry points imo. And we don’t even have to look at tech. Think healthcare stocks in the past year, or oil stocks in 2020. Many many examples. The key in this is to discern whether the market is over reacting to whatever happened and whether the company has the financial strength to work past that reaction. Best wishes for your upcoming launch.
Hi Dave, like suggested in a comment below, the 200 rule is a fallback when you lack fundamental or information based trip wires.
So I agree with you 100%.
"When you don’t know what would make you sell, the 200-day decides. Nothing good happens below it."
I'd say you whiffed on the gold miner call. When you published that was the exact time to be buying.
https://x.com/SamKovX/status/2084697027808555467?s=20
The day before the breakout I posted a video saying I'd be long Gold as soon as it breaks out.
I built a position in $CMCL at open.
This is why the subscription will be valuable. With the in app tools I will be able to send out trading alerts in real time, as there is no way I can write up multi thousand word reports at the rate at which real portfolio management requires changing my mind.
I would refer you back to this article's section on buying momentum vs buying value. There is a time for both, and if you're applying a value lens to what should be a momentum trade, you'll end up with the conclusion of your comment.
1. As a longtime shareholder of Caledonia, absolutely back you on that. My position was built in the single digits and I have collected dividends the whole way. I have also traded around the core. That's the way to build multi-baggers -- hold through drawdowns by selling covered calls and wait until the multi-year cycle has run its course. It has not yet. Bilboes will be a beast of a mine and Zimbabwe is misperceived as a jurisdiction -- it's no Mali. 2. Your post about gold miners dropped within a week literally of the bottom in the miners. Look at charts of GDX or AEM if you doubt me. I think your post landed July 10 and they bottomed July 17. Caledonia has that crazy gap down open and long candle to mark a bottom in the same week. 3. There are multiple ways to trade around bull markets in cyclical industries. You and I can both make money doing our separate things. I just think the timing optics of your post reflect something more akin to capitulation than you'll care to admit. 4. With regard to this post about portfolio building, I 100% agree with most of what you wrote. I shared your other post about the manipulation of the oil markets with multiple friends because it is spot on. However, I don't need to subscribe to your service to get ideas that I can surface on my own, like CMCL that I've been following for over a half decade. Best of luck with the touts.
Really like the transparency here. Sharing the framework and decision-making process alongside the actual portfolio is far more valuable than simply posting the winners after the fact.